ONLINE SEARCHING AND DECISION MAKING: THE AMERICAN-HUNGARIAN CONNECTION

Robert A. Karlowich

School of Information and Library Science
Pratt Institute
Brooklyn, NY 11025, USA


  Keywords: Online Searching, Online Retrieval, Online Services, Decision Making, Databases, Online Databases, Business Information, Joint Venture, Hungary, Eastern Europe, Dialog.

Abstract: Through a matrix of pre-selected data bases in Dialog online retrieval system, this study analyzes the type of current information useful to American and Hungarian interactions of business, industrial and governmental organizations. Since Budapest is the conference location site, Hungary is used as a model country making the study especially relevant to those occupied with its economic develop-ment. The study emphasizes the timeliness of this type of information, which, in turn, points up the need for countries wanting to compete effectively in US and Western free markets to have access to such data bases. Non-profit organizations maintaining online files in Dialog are also briefly discussed when they provide useful data relative to the needs of these emerging relations.

The Dialog Information Retrieval Service was chosen from a group of vendors because of the variety of data bases it offers and the relative uniformity of the search command structure required to access online data. The selection of Dialog is not meant to imply that it is necessarily the only vendor providing useful computerized information, but rather that it compromises a summary and succinct universe for purposes of this study.

1. INTRODUCTION

While the worn adage that information is power certainly contains a grain of truth, generally it slips off the tongue too easily, without much thought as to exactly what it means. Information is not really power but the way in which it is used can lead to power, however

that may be defined. I interpret power here as enhancement of one kind or another that comes from utilizing data, in a positive way, that is, of strengthening one's position, of gaining a lead on a competitor by utilizing the most complete information one can obtain, by being able to draw more pertinent conclusions concerning some question one is working on. On the other hand, having that information does not necessarily mean the user will achieve his or her ends.
It depends on how one puts it to work.

Having said this, there is still the fact that information is important, that a decision, right or wrong, must depend on the best and most current data one can obtain. It is not amiss, in this regard, to quote Anindya Bose, formerly a professor at Pratt Institute, to the effect that

any decision is only as good as the information it is based on. If we accept Professor Bose's maxim, then we might add the corollary that any organization, or individuals within that organization, dealing with current problems should have the most current information possible before any decisions are made concerning the implementation of new policies, new directions or programs.

2. ONLINE SERVICES

For some years now we have accepted as the frontline for gathering such data the online services provided by a host of vendors and originators (that is, those who create the databases that provide these services). Some originators can afford to sell their own databases, but many find the best way to distribute their files is through a vendor who provides both the hardware and software capabilities for the user (some do both and use more than one vendor). The costs for this service are spelled out in various ways, and contracts between the originator and vendor determine how the money taken in is shared. Leaving aside such questions, which are certainly important, I would like to consider how useful such a vendor is to the information needs of a country like Hungary which is embarked on its own development of a market economy and restructuring of its social services. The vendor I have chosen to use is Dialog, both because of the many files it offers and the variety of these files.

There have been some attempts to analyze the files in Dialog as they relate to Slavic studies in the United States. These works were more concerned about search techniques, academic relevance of the files, and subject heading confusion, than I am here--in my paper I have a different objective: To indicate to Hungarians what kind of information in the data bases the user in the United States has at his or her disposal on Hungary, and how those data bases might also be utilized by Hungarians for their own advantage. The search process by which that infor-mation is obtained is important in terms of the success in obtaining useful data, but I am taking the search process for granted here.

The data I will present today have been gathered from a group of files concerned with business economics. These files have a total of over 8 million records among them. Some of these records contain the contents of articles, others are limited to only a citation with or without a brief abstract. I limited myself to finding information on joint ventures between the United States and Hungary published in 1991, and did not analyze complete articles but rather citations, and abstracts when they were available. Since my searches took place in early October, nothing that has appeared since is considered. Out of these 8 million plus records, I received 159 as a result of my search. Only about 42 of these were directly related to Hungary, but there were others that were concerned with Eastern Europe in general. Some were what we call false drops, meaning they did not relate to the topic, but had some passing reference to the terms used. While this seems to be a minuscule return from such a large pool, it should be remem-bered that I limited the search to 1991, and we are dealing with new developments in Eastern Europe. Also, when the data received are analyzed, the results are more encouraging than what the figures first indicate.

The 42 items contained 36 publications which run the gamut from newswire and news-paper reports to articles from trade journals. There were generally 16 topics covered, although this by no means gives an indication of the extent of the coverage. Some were merely one sentence descriptions of warnings or summations about dealing with Eastern Europe in general or with Hungary. Others were more detailed, sometimes carrying a report from one article to another, often just repeating what had come before but just as often adding more information. An example of a warning was the statement in September that "Anyone who wants to make a financial killing overnight should stay out of Hungary." The stress here is on a "financial killing." Last February, it was announced that Hungary was the "most fertile source of invest-ment opportunities in the short term." And in June, while the admonitions remained, they were pronounced by George Gould, vice chairman of the Hungarian-American Private Enterprise Fund. Even though it is outside my time scale, these attitudes can be merged into a source that presented both the hard work involved in creating a joint venture in Hungary and the success that can be achieved with imagination and understanding. Dated September 1990, it describes the adventures of Frank H. Jellinek, Jr., a no-nonsense American businessman and head of Erie Scientific, which manufactures microscope slides. The end result of his negotiations led him to say that "A country like Hungary right now is like the Wild West, and if you're willing to go over there and get your hands dirty, you can't lose. Go in, find a building with a phone in it, find a cabdriver, and tell him, 'I want to be in business in 90 days.'" Such information is not only useful to Americans who want to do business in Hungary, but it also tells Hungarians what Americans will be looking for in terms of investment and demands. And as of this past July, over 300 US companies had found Hungary attractive enough to invest collectively a total of half a billion dollars. There are other statements such as these that both buttress the case of investing in Hungary but also provide cautionary instructions in how to go about it.

Certainly as helpful are the specific topics dealt with in these files, on the types of joint ventures that are being created. One can form an instructive list of some of those 300 American companies that have moved into Hungary. For instance, the interests of the Sara Lee company in the Hungarian food industry can be traced through several records to the point where the European arm of the company bought a major share in Compack Trading and Packing. Still on the subject of food, Gerber Products Company, which produces baby foods, was reported in August to have begun exporting to Poland and to be "evaluating opportunities" in Hungary and Czechoslovakia. In June, Procter & Gamble entered into 2 joint ventures in Hungary: one, with Ergonett to sell paper goods; the second, with Pharmafontana, to sell personal care products. For the Hungarians it can be of further interest that Proctor & Gamble is not doing well in the United States and thus has decided to expand into Eastern Europe. Several records pertain to Pfizer, Inc., an American pharmaceutical company. Essentially, they all relay the same infor-mation, that Pfizer and Biogal have formed a joint venture company called Pfizer Biogal Kft. for the purpose of marketing and distributing Pfizer pharmaceutical products in Hungary, with Pfizer holding a 51% share in the company. Three of them, however, mention the fact that the new company will market new products developed by Pfizer's research and development program.

Another area of attraction is the electronics and telecommunications industry. In July, a report gave details on the startup operation of 23 computer stores which the Hungarian govern-ment originally owned. They are to be franchised under a joint venture called Duna Elektronika, composed of Donasphere of Maryland, 2 state-owned businesses in Hungary, an investment fund, and MicroAge Industries of Phoenix, Arizona. We read further that Duna Elektronika "has additionally received funds from the Hungarian-American Enterprise Fund, entirely financed by the US government to set up trading ventures." This is probably the same Hungarian-American Private Enterprise Fund mentioned above, and for anyone who wishes to define the fund further it provides a useful addition to the information already obtained. Also in July, it was announced that Hewlett Packard had concluded a joint venture with the Hungarian firm Controll. The new firm, HP-Controll, will have sole distribution rights in Hungary for Hewlett Packard products. In August, there was a statement about a mobile telephone joint venture between American companies and the Soviet Ministry of Posts and Telecommunica-tions. Included in the statement was a report that one of the companies, US West, was building a cellular network in, among other countries, Hungary. The US West arrangement in Hungary was with the Hungarian Telecommunications Company and announced as far back as January. In September it was announced that Miralite Communications had entered the international telephone, fax and compressed video traffic business and that it was planning projects in Hungary, Poland and other East European countries. Also in September, a report was carried that MCI Communications had added Hungary as its first East European country to its MCA CALL USA service, making telephone contact with the United States easier. This same source also tells of a private telecom enterprise in Hungary that is looking for an investor to provide modern local networks technology.

There is also information in these records about other American companies that are ini-tiating joint ventures in Hungary. They cover such fields as advertising, defense technology, electric power stations, engineering, glass making, market potential in Eastern Europe for making automobiles and dungarees, and more. They include such firms as D'Arcy Masius Benton & Bowles, Ford Motor Company, General Electric, General Motors, Guardian Industries Corp., Levi Strauss, Schwinn. One item of interest to Hungarians must be a report in March on management training. This pertains to Eastern Europe in general and describes a new consortium that has plans to have selected students complete a nine-month academic program in American and Canadian universities, and then spend three months with American and Canadian corporations willing to participate in the program. The objective, of course, being to train them in how businesses in the Western hemisphere do business.

Finally, the value of these searches prove themselves in other ways. In August, after a discussion on environmental and energy problems in Eastern Europe, it was reported that the Environmental and Energy Study Institute recommended to the United States Agency for International Development that it "provide a detailed proposal on how to set up a network of international centers for energy efficiency." A little over a month later, we read that this same agency, AID, had given Hungary $10 million to help "reform its energy sector." I am sure that such information can be helpful to the entrepreneurial "cab drivers" of Hungary, the sub-contractors, as well as the electric power companies in America who may be seeking joint ventures there.

In addition to providing information about corporate relations between Hungary and the United States, there is data as well on the negotiations and contracts with Hungary's neighbors, Poland and Czechoslovakia. These three countries are constantly described as the most accessible for development in the free-market world, and it is to the interests of each to know what the other two are doing in this sphere, as it is to the American entrepreneur to know how receptive the atmosphere is in each country. Many of the records recalled in my search brought this information out, but it can be more closely monitored if need be. As far back as January, a report was published on a two-week Executive Aerospace Trade Mission to these countries in 1990, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Among those companies that took part were Beech Aircraft, Columbia Astronautics, General Electric, General Dynamics, and United Technologies, and it was claimed there were more than 500 meetings in those two weeks, "focused on exploring joint ventures, technology transfer, and direct sales." Another trade mission to Czechoslovakia and Hungary for engineering firms was reported very positively in February. With all this information, and more, in hand, one could move into any number of other files in order to seek out such facts as sales and capitalization and descriptions of indivi-dual companies, biographies of individuals, explanations of particular groups organized to provide aid to Eastern Europe, and information about grants awarded to American and Hungarian institutions to achieve particular purposes. What one does from this point on depends on one's goals. Further, I have only used a small universe for my report, covering primarily industrial and manufacturing concerns. Organizations in such areas as law, banking and finance, many representatives of the so-called service sector, also show an active interest in Eastern Europe.

3. FACTORS OF COST

What is the cost of all this? That depends on a number of factors:

• How well the search is conducted (which means how long one is online),

• the amount of information that is needed (a citation, an abstract, or the full text), and

• which files are used for the search.

The cost of search can be $500, it can be less, or it can be more. There are firms in the United States that spend thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars each month for online searches. One answer to this then is that the cost is not cheap. But this cost must be compared with the cost of gathering such data without the aid of an online search. Even though one may be aware of the information gathered from these sources, it will be at great expense of time in pursuing the paper trail, which is fine if you can afford the staff.

The advantages of the online approach are many. These include:

• the variety of sources that can be accessed,

• providing the ability to gather divergent and corroborating views,

• the time that can be saved in not having to do this through hard copy, and

• the up-to-date character of the information received.

While the expense can be high to achieve all this, it must be matched against the cost of individuals searching hard copy, the cost of making duplicates of the articles found, and the high cost of having all the titles needed for reference in one place, even considering such a possibility to be advisable. Using an online source can bring together many disparate journals, covering areas you may never have thought were relevant. Such an approach can help toward reinforcing a decision about investment or negotiation and may put the person in a better, or more powerful if you wish, position to achieve his or her goals.

4. CODA

As a postscript I wish to acknowledge that I have not considered the use of CD-ROM for this search. It is an alternative, where the cost is fixed, similar to a yearly journal subscription, and an updated disk is supplied regularly. I have not used it for comparative purposes because I have been considering mainly files that are updated weekly, and the possibility of gathering all possible CD-ROM disks in the fields that may be of interest to a user may not hold any advan-tage over access and cost. The frequency of updates for CD-ROMS also varies widely. How-ever, this comparison must be explored further and we will do so in the future.